The Head Game: High Efficiency Analytic Decision-Making and the Art of Solving Complex Problems Quickly Audible Audiobook – Unabridged

Philip Mudd was the deputy director of the CIA’s Counterterrorist Center. His occupation required that he provide the analysis that allowed for effective decisions by the President of the United States, the Secretary of State, the Transport Security Administrator, and the Directors of the FBI and CIA.His work required him to be highly efficient and accurate in analysing complex problems. The consequences of poor analysis could lead to enormous destruction as in 9/11, or widespread panic, as after the Boston Marathon attack.Drawing on his extraordinary experience, Mudd has assembled a highly useable and efficient set of tools to assist anyone who has to make important decisions that do not have a single, right, answer.Everyone faces decisions such as these at some point in their lives –what car should I buy, or should I sell my home and move to another. Professionally, we are often faced with this type of decision-making. Knowing how to do it better is a valuable management skill, that should be learned by everyone responsible for important matters.The first step in the technique is to “think backwards,” because gathering a huge body of information is only useful if the information is relevant to the decision that needs to be made. Consider the question: What will the weather be like tomorrow?Gathering data that will allow you to produce an answer of “81% probability of rain,” is not valuable unless you know what decision the person asking the question has to make. If she wishes to know whether she should water the garden, “81%” would be an indication that it will probably be unnecessary. If she wishes to know whether she can have a picnic in the park in the afternoon, the “81%” answer would be a fine display of meteorological forecasting ability, but would be unhelpful. Letting her know that there is an “81% probability of rain in the late afternoon” would make it possible to decide whether or not to risk hosting the picnic.“Thinking backwards” is the first step in being efficient in analysis, so that the right question is answered. Briefing the President on the level of threat is only valuable, if it will allow him to make an actionable decision. Anything else, would be a waste of the 30 minutes of Presidential time allotted that day to the evaluation of citizens’ security.One only has to think back to the last time an internal or external advisor gave you information, to remind yourself of how often you are fed irrelevant, time-wasting, analysis.The ability to formulate the question that the person receiving your input requires, is not a quick or easy task. It requires serious mental effort, and is probably not worth the effort for trivial issues.“I use the word ‘craft,’ or ‘create,’” Mudd writes, “because we often assume that questions create themselves. Good questions, though, are hard to come up with, and we typically overinvest our time in analyzing problems by jumping right to the data and the conclusions, while underinvesting in thinking about exactly what it is we want to know.”Mudd explains how to break a question into its constituent parts. Without this step, gathering information is not efficient, even if it is correct. You can arrive at your destination by following the instructions on your GPS, or by driving up and down until you find the store. Both methods achieve the same result, but the first method is so much more efficient.Mudd’s method continues with the identification of “bins” into which you will deposit the information you are gathering. The bins are the “decision-drivers”, that will inform the conclusion you arrive at. If you are buying a car, the drivers of that decision may be cost, reliability, seating, safety, size and fuel efficiency. Mudd recommends no more than 10 drivers, simply to force one to think of the real issues and to avoid gathering unnecessary data.The hard decisions are never based on an exactly-known future. The purpose of analysis is to try to reduce uncertainty where there are no perfect answers.To improve our analysis we need to set metrics as “guardrails” to warn if we are veering off the path. If “cost” is a “decision-driver”, what metric for the cost of a car would exclude it? R 350,000? R 200,000? If the car we like exceeds that metric, it is excluded from our consideration. Every decision-driver requires a set of metrics that bracket it.Only when the question, decision-drivers, and metrics have been set, is it worthwhile gathering data. This way the decision-making process becomes highly efficient, and we do not spend time looking at cars (for example,) that are outside of the decision-driver’s metrics.In addition to the examples I have used, (which Mudd mentions in passing,) he uses political issues with which everyone would be familiar to take the reader through his method. These are issues the CIA dealt with - Will Mubarak be in power in two years? Who will succeed the Shah of Iran? How serious is the recruitment of young citizens into foreign terrorist organizations? And many more.The method is clear and efficient and the book is its training course. Knowing how to swim is no substitute for getting into a pool and executing the stokes. Going through Mudd’s examples will embed the method in your thinking.Readability Light -+--- SeriousInsights High +---- LowPractical High +---- Low*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works. .

This is a tremendous and accessible book in the vein of Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow." Where that book looks at the overlapping and convincing academic data that explains the way our mind play tricks on us, Mudd's book offers a practical approach to tricking it back -- into serving our decision decision-making more responsibly. A capability we need more than ever in a complex world.

Big Data can be overwhelming. The author of H.E.A.D.*, Mr. Philip Mudd's brilliance and wonderful wordsmith work allows the reader to make analytically sound decisions.*"High Efficiency Analytic Decision-making" delivers the a art and science of solving complex problems. Make no mistake, Mr. Mudd reveals the steps you need to take to tackle every complex scenario you will ever encounter that requires cerebral discipline. @arthurbarbato

This is a great book! It is very interesting and informative and gives you some insight into how to be a good analyst. Philip Mudd compliments these principles by using examples taken from his real-world experience as an analyst for intelligence agencies. I would highly recommend this book.

I saw Phillip Mudd on a PBS interview and pre-ordered the book. Although the content has a few insights, it lacks the architectural design to hold your attention. It is not terrible, just on the boring side at times. I wanted more practical verbiage, charts and steps to follow.

I have a crush on Phil Mudd for his mind & it's great reading how he thinks.

One of the best books iv ever read . The insight is brilliant . Truly shows and promtes critical thinking skills . Challenge and inspires outside the box thinking and analysis .

Loved thinking in a new way! Fascinating case histories make for page turning reading.

This is a cool book: got a big decision to make, so ask yourself, what would the CIA do? Using CIA failures as examples of how not to analyse a problem, ex-CIA analyst Mudd provides just about all one needs. Underpublicised (at least in the UK) this book is the real deal. It's actually useful, as well as full of insider insights on how intelligence agencies work. Would be five stars if it was written in better prose (but then it might in fact not be quite so helpful).

Excellent and well-written book. Well worth buying!

My opinion of Mudd has changed since he has catered his message to the narrative on CNN.