Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression Hardcover – 4 July 2002

there is going to be a major crash in the coming times and this book is an excellent guid to prepare for it.

I wish that I had read this masterpiece 2-3 years ago. Roubini has become so famous because he predicted it in 2006 but Bob Prechter had pictured today's financial chaos and mess back in 2000. And he warns us that the crisis is far from over. His fundamental analysis and Elliott Wave theory is unprecedented. Although he is already a well known market analyst I think he does not get enough credit. However, I strongly believe his work will be acknowledged at some point in time by everybody.

記述はエリオット波やコンドラチェフの波とかを引用した、世界デフレの到来の予告に注力しているようだ。しかし、いまさら予告でもあるまい。すでにデフレは来ているのだから。知りたいのは、デフレのなかでいかに資産を防衛していくか、という方法だ。ところが、後半でデフレ対策として推奨している方法は、インフレ対策も含まれている。つまり、著者は長期デフレの到来を主張しつつ、近い将来にインフレに転換することを想定した資産運用を読者に推奨しているのだ。アメリカ一国だけがインフレになるとすれば納得できるが、そうは書いてない。かん

A lot of what drives market activity--and what creates opportunities for profitable trades--is herd behavior. When prices start to go up, the bullish sentiment spreads, and as soon as a crowd gets involved, a rally is underway. When fear sets it, it gets contagious and the market crashes.But the really big opportunities come from the ability to step outside of the herd's expectations and see things from a different perspective. If you have the wisdom and the courage to go against the popular belief, you can reap substantial rewards, especially if your timing is right. And someone who demonstrates that ability to defy the herd is someone worth paying attention to.Robert R. Prechter Jr. is a good example. As the world-renowned popularizer of the Elliott Wave Principle, he has repeatedly revealed his capacity for original and insightful thinking. Along the way, he has time and again come up with startling forecasts for the markets and for the economy, sharing perceptions that boggle the minds of the more pedestrian pundits who are hopelessly locked into linear thinking.In 2002 Prechter published a watershed book, Conquer the Crash, in which he made some astonishing predictions that defied the popular logic of the time, when the focus of the financial experts was on buy-and-hold strategies in the stock market, speculation in real estate that could presumably only go up in value, and on hedging investment positions with sophisticated derivatives as a kind of portfolio insurance.And what did Bob Prechter predict? The implosion of collateralized securities. The collapse of Fannie Mae and the crumbling of major banks. The failure of bond-rating services to issue timely warnings. The advent of bailout schemes from the government. And an extremely rare, simultaneous plunge in real estate prices, commodities, and the stock market.Oddly enough, as one after another of Prechter's forecasts were precisely reflected in the financial news of recent years, he didn't get much attention in the mainstream press. Maybe it was because his book also featured another prediction--that we are facing a deflationary depression.While some would argue that deflation is impossible under the present circumstances, it might be prudent at least to consider that possibility, especially considering the stunning accuracy of Bob Prechter's other predictions. And if you're willing to take a peek at that scenario, Prechter has just the thing for you--a brand-new edition of Conquer the Crash!All of the analysis and insight from the original edition is included in the new second edition. But Prechter has added 188 pages of entirely new material, and every one of the book's pages is worth reading and re-reading, even if your copy of the original edition is coffee-stained and dog-eared.There are plenty of fresh gems between the covers. Here are just a few samples:"It is not the case that Fed chairmen are either fools or geniuses, as their records appear to imply. They do, however, preside over eras that make them appear to be one or the other.""I hate to challenge mainstream 20th century macroeconomic theory, but the idea that a growing economy needs easy credit is a false theory. Credit should be supplied by the free market, in which case it will almost always be offered intelligently, primarily to producers, not consumers.""Those waiting to get rich in the stock market, however, have just been kidnapped, trussed up and thrown in the trunk of a car heading to Bankruptcy City. . . . Just look at this 25-year trendline, which just burst like an Army Corps levee.""One of the biggest scams ever perpetrated is the idea that the stock market has made people rich over the past 80 years. Almost the entire gain in the Dow is due to debasement of the currency."Even more important, though, the new edition of Conquer the Crash does more than just make dire forecasts and describe an ever-more-likely scenario of extended economic catastrophe. It also provides sound, specific strategies not just for surviving a wave of deflationary depression, but also for turning the troubled times ahead into an enormous opportunity for profit and personal prosperity.Note the word "specific" here. Conquer the Crash not only offers clear theoretical insights and extraordinary strategic thinking; it also provides a treasure trove of references and useful resources, including websites, phone numbers, and the names of sound banks, insurers, gold dealers, advisors, and other individuals who can help you with your plans for prosperity during a deflationary depression. There's also an access code for a special online question-and-answer forum for readers of the book.So here's the bottom line. Get a copy of Conquer the Crash immediately. Then read it, and put the strategies it suggests into action. If Bob Prechter's forecasts somehow turn out to be wrong, you won't really be any worse off--in fact, you'll wind up with a more solid grasp on your own financial future. But if he turns out to be right, you'll not only be able to make it through the coming depression--you'll also be able to reap some very big rewards as we hit bottom in a time of unprecedented opportunity.*****By the way, here's what I had to say about the original edition of this book back in 2002:"How much time is left?" That's the question that kept ringing through my mind as I finished reading Bob Prechter's new book, Conquer the Crash. "How much time is left? And how fast can I take appropriate action?" There's definitely a sense of urgency created in this insightful and wonderfully readable book. While it's not specifically about equities trading or financial astrology, the topics that provide the usual focus for Financial Cycles, it's required reading for market astrologers, active traders, and anyone else who wants to enhance his or her prospects for economic survival in the years ahead. Prechter, the world's preeminent authority on Elliott Wave theory, makes an extremely convincing argument, not only that we are headed for a major market crash and a widespread depression much bigger than the one 70 years ago, but also that we will experience severe deflation, halting and reversing the inflationary trend that has been a bedrock assumption in virtually all financial planning throughout our lives. He examines market history, social psychology, and the prevailing money myths to create a startlingly clear vision of some pretty scary situations that demand serious attention. Along the way, he illuminates the workings of the Federal Reserve, assesses the impact of increasing terrorism, examines the outlook for government, and makes suggestions for employers, collectors, and prospective retirees. And while he isn't writing about financial astrology, he does provide vital insights into the workings of economic and social cycles-not only Elliott Wave, but the Kondratieff long wave as well. That's not to say that this is a technical book written only for seasoned analysts or would-be experts. In fact, the opposite is true. It contains some of the clearest, easiest-to-understand material I've ever read on Elliott Wave. But more importantly, its real charm, and its usefulness, comes from the fact that Bob Prechter is writing for average folks who probably haven't really given much thought to what might happen to the economy in the years ahead. And while some of the insights in Conquer the Crash are scary enough, this isn't really a doom-and-gloom piece. It's chock full of practical tips for specific actions you can and should take right now. You'll find valuable guidance here, not only on how to handle the stock market ("The opportunity to make money on the downside in a deflationary crash can hardly be overstated"), but also on real estate, bonds, insurance, banking, annuities, and precious metals. And the actions Prechter suggests aren't vague generalities-you'll find easy-to-read check lists of the particular things you can do in various situations, plus specific names of financial and research institutions that can provide additional help, along with toll-free phone numbers, URLs, and other contact information. All at once, Conquer the Crash manages to be gripping, thought-provoking reading, a handy reference book, and a stirring call to personal action. As Prechter notes, he certainly gets into "concerns that most investment counselors view as little different from paranoia. As the old saying goes, I may be paranoid, but that doesn't mean there isn't someone following me. In the final analysis, it is better to be safe and wrong than exposed and wrong." Robert Prechter deserves a lot of respect for the outstanding work he has done over the years in his analysis of social and economic trends. He never hesitates to define his point of view clearly, and he's never afraid to risk taking a stand. As a result he is one of those truly rare commodities in today's hype-filled age: a genuinely original thinker. Conquer the Crash is a delightful case in point. If Bob Prechter is right, the only question is how much time is left for you to take appropriate action. And if it turns out that he's wrong, taking the actions he suggests won't endanger your financial security or severely impact your current lifestyle in any negative way. So what have you got to lose? I strongly suggest that you get your hands on a copy of this book, read it, and pay very close attention to what it says. -Tim Bost [...]

saved many of us from disaster.a must read book