Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons

This book deals with something that most of us don't spend much time thinking about. We should think about it more.Cirincione, the former director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, takes the reader through the history of the development of nuclear weapons and the arms control agreements that have somewhat curtailed their spread. He presents a rational analysis of the drivers that cause states to seek to acquire nuclear weapons as well as the barriers that motivate some to turn away from the quest, or abandon it altogether.And in the light of reasoned consideration he concludes, "The good news is that the nonproliferation regime has worked. The nuclear threat is less severe today than it was in 1970 when the Non-Proliferation Treaty entered into force". He bases this assessment on the fact that "the number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined from a peak of 65,000 in 1986, to roughly 27,000 today". But does this necessarily make the world a safer place?Cirincione takes satisfaction that "the threat of a global thermonuclear war is now near zero". He goes on to state, "The dangers we face today are very serious, but they are orders of magnitude less severe than those we confronted just two decades ago from the overkill potential of U.S. and Russian arsenals. We no longer worry about the fate of the earth, but we still worry about the fate of our cities". It is in the ensuing discussion of nuclear terrorism that the upbeat tenor of the author's faith in the potential of negotiations and agreements to manage the imminent threat increasingly seems disconnected from reality.While it is true that the threat of global thermonuclear war has diminished, the probability all out nuclear war was always very low as a result of the Strangelovian logic of mutually assured destruction. On the other hand, the likelihood of the detonation of a nuclear weapon smuggled into an American city by terrorists in the next decade is clearly significant. While such an event would not be the end of life on this planet, its societal, economic and political consequences would almost certainly be the end of life as we have come to know it. And, millions of people would die. This being the case, how can the author argue that the world is safer now than it was twenty years ago?Cirincione also contends that the reduction in ballistic missiles is an indicator of a reduction of risk in the present day. What he neglects to consider is that weapons dispatched through alternate means - say in shipping containers with GPS activation - do not leave a return address, and as a result would not invite immediate retaliation. It would seem that a country hostile to the United States could launch such an attack with an impunity that would be inconceivable were the method of delivery a ballistic missile.In this context it's hard to buy into the author's upbeat assessment of the future. As he would have it, securing existing weapons and stocks of fissile materials, new rounds of negotiations employing various carrots and sticks, and the good example of further disarmament by the US and Russia hold the promise of a better and a safer world. The problem is that while these actions are indeed necessary they are certainly not sufficient to produce the intended outcome. This is particularly the case given that some future nuclear adversaries may hold to apocalyptic world views.Towards the end of the book Cirincione writes, "After wading through the history, theory, dangers, challenges and failures of proliferation policy, most readers could be excused for feeling a bit depressed. Don't be".I guess I just can't help it. I am.

This book is in fact one of those "pocket books" which are more long than wide. I usually find this to be very annoying, yet this seems to be a special case. The shape of the book does not take away from the overall quality of the book. The author is very informed and makes it easy to read. He also gives plenty of examples with the points that he makes and includes graphs for easy understanding. One need not be a rocket scientist to understand this book, and you will gain a good insight to the international situation of nuclear weapons. He presents quality information and clear ideas.For those that don't know what this book is about, it is quite simple to understand as the author makes it clear in his introduction: "the proliferation of nuclear weapons is undesirable" (Cirincioine xi). This book informs the reader about what a nuclear weapon is, what reasons states have for acquirement, what the international community has done to cease proliferation, and who has nuclear weapons. These ideas a supported with examples, graphs, and general evidence.I highly recommend it to all those that are interested in the topic!

Joseph Cirincione has provided us with a wonderful, concise history of nuclear weapons and the diplomacy behind the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the atomic era. At 224 pages it is a quick, well written and very informative read and a fantastic introduction to the world of atomic and thermonuclear weapons in an age when nuclear terrorism is a real threat. Readers who do not remember the cold war or students new to the subject will have to seek other source materials to get a true idea of the destructive power and horrors associated with a nuclear detonation (or full on nuclear exchange; less likely in the post cold war era), but that was not the intention of this book. A thorough understanding of the policy implications of weapons reductions strategies, the securing of loose nuclear material and preventing future nuclear states is provided, and the knowledge contained in Bomb Scare will assist voters decision making when selecting leaders to deal with these complex issues.

Living with nuclear weapons for over half a century, many people have little appreciation for their immense destructive power and the increasing probability that they will be used in anger or detonated by accident. Most policy experts see the world on the verge of a binge in proliferation. This slender book succinctly reviews the history, explains the technology needed by the layman to understand the problem, and, most importantly, lays out the choices facing the United States and the world to reduce and eliminate the possibility of their use in the future by terrorists or nation states. The book is well referenced and balanced.

From an expert, how the world is still on the brink of disaster, and what we need to do to avoid it, and why we aren't. Intimate with the details of disarmament negotiations, Cirincione understands why we must disarm, and why we can't/won't.

This book is a quick read, but a heady one--for anyone who needs a concise but solid understanding of nuclear history, security, and policy, definitely read this one or Cirincione's new one "Nuclear Nightmares."Clearly he has his agenda as head of the Ploughshares Fund, but facts are facts, and they're presented well in "Bomb Scare."

Bomb Scare fills in the blank spaces that other books leave. It completes the picture of the history of nuclear weapons and brings into sharper focus their role in the future. It broadened my comprehension of the issues. And, Cirincione provides a balanced assessment of the interplay between policies, politics, and weapons.Bruce A. Roth, Executive DirectorDaisy AllianceAuthor of "No Time To Kill"

Made me realize that the American public, including myself has been drinking the Cool,Aid being dispensed by war mongers and neo conservatives.