What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives

Gary Smith explains why pessimists and optimists are all wrong. If we have a run of bad luck it does not mean that a good turn is about to happen; conversely, if we have a run of bad luck, it does not mean that it is going to continue forever. So what’s the point of this book?The author seeks to stop us from superstitious beliefs, the sort that gamblers and sportsmen are very susceptible to. Tall parents tend to have tall children and short parents tend to have short children – but that is not always so. One child of a pair of tall parents may be shorter than them and another taller; just as a child of short parents may be taller than his parents whereas his sibling might be shorter.Smith’s explanation is that the law of regression to the mean – and the draw of luck. This law applies across the board, from the assessment of students to the picking of a company CEO. “Disappointment is likely to be especially acute when an outsider is brought in as CEO. First, an outsider doesn’t know the company’s culture and the strengths and weaknesses of its employees. Second, the board making the hiring decision doesn’t know the outsider as well as it knows its insiders. The less information there is, the more likely the gap between perception and reality – the more likely will be regression to the mean.’ So the CEO is not going to be as good or as bad as he seems at the time. Fans of Manchester United in recent years will probably understand how this principle works.Smith says that ‘Hot streaks and the law of averages are both wishful thinking’. When you have a hot run, beware, you may soon be regressing to the mean, but Smith leaves us the encouragement: ‘Regression is a package of pitfalls and opportunities. Avoid the pitfalls and seize the opportunities.’ He discusses ways of doing this in his book; and the difference between luck and the law of regression to the mean. Best of luck.

What the Luck? What indeed. I was expecting an interesting book about luck, chance, probability and randomness. What I actually got was an author who has discovered a single mathematical phenomenon and is clearly obsessed by it.The book comprises chapters about varied topics such as sport, education, business etc. Each of these chapters is a collection of anecdotes that show regression to the mean. Before I was far into chapter two I was internally screaming "Yes - it's regression to the mean. I GET IT!!". I kept hoping he'd move on, but no. His other obsession is sport. And not just any old sport, but American sports (yawn). There is only one chapter where he manages to not mention either football, baseball or (more usually) both.So, if you are an American sports fan with the attention span of a goldfish, this might be the book for you. Otherwise, I'd avoid it.