The Next Great War? – The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.–China Conflict (Belfer Center Studies in International Security)

This is a thought-provoking book by a number of international affairs experts. The theme is duo-fold. First it analyses the causes of the First World War and secondly, it attempts to draw a comparative risk analysis in the relationship between the US and China today. It is not the economic contest alone that poses a risk of war. Arthur Stein and Joseph Nye Jr provide interesting views as to the causes of WWI. Nye Jr in his essay addresses the two main general questions: Is war preventable and is it inevitable. WWI is an apt subject of study because it had 20 million people killed and empires were destroyed. There were multiple causes of WWI and these are examined in full by Nye Jr. The establishment of two strong blocs in Europe did not cause the war, but Nye Jr says, ‘…without the two blocs, the war could not have broken out in the way it did’. As some of the other contributors assert, two ‘small’ factors were highly crucial in causing the outbreak of WWI. The first was that the leaders of the key nations, Germany, Britain, Russia, and France listened to the advice of the lesser known figures in their respective countries. Secondly, it was the failure to contain small incidents and allowing them to escalate. The two factors became crucial when two big powers allowed long-standing conflicts of interests to continue without finding a diplomatic valve to diffuse the tension. The problem is further complicated by a third factor – the presence of a third party. This is the composite figure of the various allies of the super-powers. Their involvement and disputes with one of the powers invariably draw in the other. Small things mean a lot, and be careful of your friends as you should be with your enemies. That seems to be the overall message of this book. What makes the book a chilling read is that the reader can juxtapose the present-day bickering between the US and China and their respective allies to see how close the contributors’ analyses are to the history of Europe leading to WWI. Perhaps the leaders of the US and China ought to read this book – and be more aware of the hawks in their own ranks, spoiling for a fight. Or else, history will surely repeat itself.